Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9989…c061 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.9% -2.3% 83% 67% -9.8%
≤30d 18 +7.9% -2.3% 83% 67% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +7.9% -2.3% 83% 67% -9.8%
all 18 +7.9% -2.3% 83% 67% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 67% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 39% -18.4%
15% -20.2% 17% -26.3%
20% -28.0% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records