Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9988…c76f sports 1191 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1168W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$90
other 17% +$10
weather 17% −$40
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 188 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1189 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 1189 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1168 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1189 / 1191
History coverage81d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: WROTBERRY vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Robin Risser be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 4m
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 8m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 1h
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $45 6h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY MIR 100¢ $50 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 8h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $50 13h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: WROTBERRY vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY Fire Flux Esports 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 2479 history records