Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9986…1dfb other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$985 (-14%) realized −$989 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%37W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,039
7 days−$702
14 days−$702
30 days−$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$410
sports 20% −$183
crypto 12% −$395
world 7% +$49
politics 1% +$33
culture 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -30.3% -36.9% 32% 29% -34.2%
≤30d 77 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -31.0%
≤90d 77 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -31.0%
all 106 -13.1% -21.3% 35% 30% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 30% -21.9%
10% -28.9% 27% -29.4%
15% -35.7% 25% -36.2%
20% -42.0% 22% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$989
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 69
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage278d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$30 +145%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$3 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $72 −$6 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $193 −$92 -48%
Virtus Bologna vs. Panathinaikos Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $157 −$71 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 3? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 31 and 32 million Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago pres Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get 35 million or more views Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 30 and 31 million Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28 +$33 +119%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $25 +$48 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 Jun 16 $51 +$150 +294%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$9 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $71 +$35 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $76 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 58¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $26 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $30 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 4h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $60 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $28 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $119 26h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $26 28h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $25 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 35¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $61 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.54 · official $109.04 · 248 history records