Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9985…6afa other 282 markets active 13h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+1%) realized +$421 · open −$189
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%155W / 123L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$516
14 days−$524
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$93
crypto 22% −$456
world 18% +$265
politics 11% +$301
sports 7% +$135
tech 3% +$36
finance 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.0% +9.5% 67% 44% -36.0%
≤30d 54 -4.7% -13.7% 61% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 106 +5.7% -4.3% 62% 52% -9.9%
all 278 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 46% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -7.3%
10% -19.1% 33% -16.1%
15% -27.0% 26% -24.2%
20% -34.1% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses155 / 123
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)278 / 282
History coverage623d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 30¢ 28¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 12¢ $199 $35 −$164 (-82%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? No 20¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $606 −$600 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$59 +293%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $70 −$29 -42%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $690 +$14 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $50 −$18 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$11 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $90 +$22 +25%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $183 +$45 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 07 $93 +$16 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$9 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $51 +$5 +11%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 04 $32 +$7 +22%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $50 +$4 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $354 +$21 +6%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $30 −$14 -48%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $10 +$21 +206%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 +$123 +120%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 01 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $107 −$103 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $107 +$19 +18%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$148 +73%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $51 −$25 -50%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $102 −$35 -35%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $46 +$6 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $51 +$7 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $50 +$9 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $40 +$16 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $269 +$25 +9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $101 +$4 +4%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $88 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $29 +$15 +52%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $101 +$8 +8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $52 +$13 +26%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $1 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $45 13h
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $98 30h
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 80¢ $18 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $606 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $79 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 2d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $99 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $690 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $2 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $5 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $52 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 45¢ $32 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $92 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $50 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $50 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $112 6d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 80¢ $1 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $60 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $24 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $26 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $38 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.49 · official $77.49 (match) · 1060 history records