Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x9982…9ed6 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%44W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4
crypto 10% +$1
other 8% +$1
politics 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 58 +0.3% -9.3% 76% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses44 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage534d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 04 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 02 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 14 $70 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Mar 17 $3,761 −$4 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $16 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 03 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $62 63d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $4 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $13 149d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $56 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $6 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $62 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 243d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 99¢ $39 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 274d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 302d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $42 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $50 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.86 · official $59.86 (match) · 122 history records