trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $13 | −$1 | -6% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 08 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 12 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 12 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 12 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Aug 12 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Aug 12 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 11 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 | Aug 11 | $4 | +$3 | +79% |
| Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15? | Aug 10 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | Aug 10 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 10 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 10 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 10 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? | Aug 10 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Aug 08 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 08 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Aug 08 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 08 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Aug 07 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Aug 07 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Aug 06 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 27 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 37% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.5% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -16.3% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -24.4% | 4% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -31.8% | 4% | -33.1% |