Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x997c…e71f crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-17%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day102.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -31.4% -37.9% 37% 33% -29.0%
≤30d 109 -31.4% -37.9% 37% 33% -29.0%
≤90d 109 -31.4% -37.9% 37% 33% -29.0%
all 109 -31.4% -37.9% 37% 33% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 33% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 23% -35.8%
15% -49.3% 18% -42.0%
20% -54.2% 13% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day102.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records