Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
99 0x997c…f549 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-77%) realized −$95 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$99
other 11% +$3
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +6.6%
≤30d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +6.6%
≤90d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +6.6%
all 10 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 60% -84.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 60% -84.2%
10% -18.3% 40% -85.7%
15% -26.2% 30% -87.1%
20% -33.4% 20% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage146d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +206%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 38m
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 55m
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $2 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 1h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $2 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 4¢ $1 2h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $1 3h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 145d
Miami vs. Indiana BUY Miami 24¢ $98 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $7.00 · 23 history records