Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9978…6993 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$15
other 29% +$3
politics 15% $0
sports 11% +$7
crypto 6% $0
finance 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 15 -3.1% -12.4% 27% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 6% -12.6%
all 51 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.6%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage265d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $42 −$14 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $39 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $2 $0 +11%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $26 +$6 +24%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 06 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 13h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $25 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $4 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $21 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $25 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $25 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $25 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $26 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.12 · official $27.12 (match) · 251 history records