Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x9978…7132 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,649 (+4%) realized +$1,657 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%63W / 10L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$11
crypto 28% +$18
other 22% +$6
sports 5% +$1,592
economics 4% +$9
world 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% +$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 44 +5.8% -4.3% 93% 7% -2.5%
all 73 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 11% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 11% -5.4%
10% -17.8% 8% -14.5%
15% -25.7% 5% -22.7%
20% -33.0% 4% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,033) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$54 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$3,714
Realized+$1,657
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses63 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)73 / 83
History coverage142d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,700 $2,699 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $586 $586 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $202 $202 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 74¢ 96¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,065 +$1 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,012 +$1 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,005 +$1 +0%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 16 $1,554 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 16 $1,669 +$2 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 25 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,397 +$2 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,243 +$2 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $162 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 12 $86 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 12 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 12 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March? Apr 12 $1,211 +$1 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1,115 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $1,204 +$1 +0%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 22 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $115 $0 +0%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 22 $1,217 +$1,985 +163%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Mar 19 $199 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 05 $1,451 +$4 +0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $76 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 02 $386 −$386 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 02 $983 +$2 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 02 $44 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2,700 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $202 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $586 1h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $90 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 7d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $505 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $224 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,714.22 · official $3,714.22 (match) · 336 history records