Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
99 0x9978…a49e sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$15,138 (+25%) realized +$15,227 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,494per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,311
7 days+$2,820
14 days+$6,693
30 days+$6,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 21% −$612
tech 21% +$4,821
crypto 20% +$2,415
other 12% +$3,539
world 9% +$601
finance 9% +$109
sports 5% −$123
politics 3% +$3,718
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 55% +23.2%
≤90d 31 +71.8% +55.4% 61% 55% +24.1%
all 40 +65.2% +49.5% 60% 50% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.5% 50% +12.6%
10% +35.2% 40% +1.8%
15% +22.1% 40% -8.0%
20% +10.2% 35% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$770) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$765 vs −$254 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.82 per $1 lost it wins $4.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized+$15,227
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage345d
Avg bet$1,494
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,137 $1,048 −$89 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $107 −$44 -41%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $3,481 +$3,355 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $512 −$412 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $627 −$620 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $400 +$336 +84%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $246 +$205 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $124 −$123 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $7,023 +$2,976 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $5,197 +$951 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Grou Jun 11 $500 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $640 +$69 +11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $766 +$440 +57%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? May 10 $29 −$17 -58%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $225 −$21 -9%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $100 −$42 -42%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $57 +$31 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $382 +$363 +95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $359 +$1,197 +334%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $100 +$1,586 +1586%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $50 +$50 +101%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $66 +$71 +107%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $4,217 +$796 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $410 +$19 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $5,000 +$19 +0%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 30 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Mar 26 $770 −$770 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $386 +$390 +101%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Mar 26 $891 +$2,002 +225%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 14 $300 −$50 -17%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files? Aug 22 $451 +$172 +38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 21 $725 −$558 -77%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 07 $186 +$841 +452%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $2,928 −$572 -20%
Nuclear weapon detonation before October? Aug 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $10 −$1 -12%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 23 $9,846 +$79 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 22 at 5P Jul 22 $12,156 +$2,415 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA $63 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 16¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $67 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $688 19h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $52 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $98 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $42 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $862 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $329 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $199 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $199 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $632 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $292 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $122 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $80 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $118 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $355 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $186 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $52 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.02 · official $1,048.02 (match) · 568 history records