Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
99 0x996b…efea politics 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$10 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$9
politics 30% $0
economics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -4.8% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -13.9%
10% -22.1% 0% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 0% -29.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage120d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 86¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $29.30 (match) · 11 history records