Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9962…b8e2 crypto 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate89%174W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$29
other 2% −$42
weather 1% $0
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 38% -11.4%
≤30d 47 -6.0% -15.0% 77% 21% -10.2%
≤90d 134 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 12% -9.7%
all 196 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 16% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 9% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses174 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)196 / 200
History coverage143d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $400 +$3 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $264 −$35 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 14 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Play May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 22? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 21? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $404 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $400 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 77¢ $229 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 88¢ $60 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 88¢ $132 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 88¢ $72 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.97 · official $400.17 (match) · 482 history records