Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x995f…b8b4 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+8%) realized +$70 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%40W / 30L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$58
other 21% +$49
sports 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 54% +0.7%
≤30d 70 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 54% +0.7%
≤90d 70 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 54% +0.7%
all 70 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 54% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 54% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -8.9%
15% -24.1% 47% -17.7%
20% -31.6% 40% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses40 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$14 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +87%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$33 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$11 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $59 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.05 · official $27.05 (match) · 124 history records