Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x995e…4ae4 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$532 (-29%) realized −$531 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$295
sports 25% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-77.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -75.0% -77.4% 17% 17% -48.6%
≤30d 12 -75.0% -77.4% 17% 17% -48.6%
≤90d 12 -75.0% -77.4% 17% 17% -48.6%
all 12 -75.0% -77.4% 17% 17% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.4% 17% -48.6%
10% -79.6% 17% -53.5%
15% -81.5% 8% -58.0%
20% -83.3% 8% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$79 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $298 +$201 +67%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $148 +$48 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $374 −$182 -49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$32 -52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $273 −$271 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $297 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 20h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $298 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $148 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $134 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $27 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $180 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $150 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.57 · official $366.57 (match) · 27 history records