Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9959…503c world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$9
other 24% −$1
politics 10% +$1
sports 7% −$10
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 19% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 76 -4.6% -13.7% 28% 1% -9.8%
all 83 -5.3% -14.3% 33% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 1% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 1% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage531d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $61 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $71 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $153 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $76 +$6 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $44 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $44 −$5 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $137 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $6 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $129 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $76 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $47 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $6 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records