Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9958…a088 crypto 1009 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,718 (-6%) realized −$1,718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%400W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$470
14 days+$632
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,267
other 4% −$303
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +5.6%
≤30d 138 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 60% -6.1%
≤90d 1009 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 37% -13.7%
all 1009 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 35% -22.0%
15% -31.4% 31% -29.5%
20% -38.1% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses400 / 609
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1009 / 1009
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1009 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $69 +$45 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$63 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$56 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$53 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$42 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$45 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$45 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$44 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$40 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$92 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$57 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$54 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$27 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$32 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$29 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$29 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$53 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$46 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$55 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$41 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$37 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$32 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$37 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$55 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$56 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $64 +$47 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$33 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$42 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$35 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$31 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $64 +$62 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$40 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $71 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $69 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $66 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $107 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $65 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $108 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $63 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $73 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $49 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $91 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $108 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $64 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records