Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9958…c7c6 crypto 438 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 268d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$494 (-4%) realized −$474 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%216W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$89
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% −$24
crypto 37% −$123
other 24% −$346
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.4% -7.4% 71% 43% -26.5%
≤30d 50 -15.0% -23.1% 56% 38% -11.5%
≤90d 129 -14.2% -22.3% 49% 33% -13.7%
all 431 -7.9% -16.6% 50% 28% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 28% -12.9%
10% -24.6% 17% -21.2%
15% -31.9% 10% -28.8%
20% -38.6% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses216 / 215
Open positions7
Markets (closed)431 / 438
History coverage269d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Down 69¢ 90¢ $128 $166 +$38 (+30%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 71¢ 52¢ $115 $83 −$32 (-28%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 40¢ 52¢ $60 $79 +$18 (+30%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 58¢ 45¢ $91 $71 −$20 (-22%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Down 96¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? Down 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Down 41¢ 12¢ $43 $13 −$30 (-70%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Up 39¢ 55¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 63¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +33%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 17 $114 −$80 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$4 -14%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 17 $131 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
HYPE Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $63 +$43 +69%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $44 −$40 -91%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $84 −$66 -79%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $58 −$49 -85%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $68 +$40 +58%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $80 +$30 +38%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $153 −$1 -0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $139 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $81 −$51 -63%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $95 +$15 +15%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $98 +$27 +27%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $136 +$35 +26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $226 +$13 +6%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $45 −$44 -98%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $53 −$52 -98%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $7 −$2 -26%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $99 −$79 -80%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $143 +$9 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $137 +$165 +120%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $98 −$97 -99%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 22? May 25 $124 +$6 +5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $0 $0 -96%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $7 +$3 +43%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $4 +$2 +34%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $15 −$4 -28%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $18 +$6 +34%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $150 +$1 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $70 +$106 +150%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $171 −$167 -98%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $8 −$8 -96%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $119 +$6 +5%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $79 +$71 +89%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $90 +$61 +68%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $132 +$26 +19%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $159 +$4 +3%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $0 $0 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $89 28m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 30¢ $3 43m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 70¢ $104 46m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 40¢ $62 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 60¢ $40 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 82¢ $38 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 68¢ $7 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 72¢ $111 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 82¢ $7 2h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 35¢ $3 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 46¢ $13 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 67¢ $7 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 66¢ $7 2h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $6 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $9 2h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.48 · official $494.20 · 3500 history records