Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9956…3013 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+12%) realized +$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$50
other 9% +$16
world 6% +$1
weather 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 61% 53% +2.7%
≤30d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 61% 53% +2.7%
≤90d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 61% 53% +2.7%
all 36 +13.8% +3.0% 61% 53% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 53% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 42% -7.1%
15% -15.9% 33% -16.1%
20% -24.1% 25% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$15 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$18 +145%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$26 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $62 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $60 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 26m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $24 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 59m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.44 · official $76.45 (match) · 86 history records