Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9955…e803 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$85 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day89.9pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$72
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$84
other 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -15.7% -23.7% 68% 15% -8.1%
≤30d 42 -15.2% -23.3% 69% 14% -8.1%
≤90d 42 -15.2% -23.3% 69% 14% -8.1%
all 42 -15.2% -23.3% 69% 14% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 14% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 5% -16.9%
15% -37.3% 5% -25.0%
20% -43.5% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Under 93¢ 88¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $666 +$25 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $500 +$13 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $238 +$11 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $73 +$2 +3%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $765 +$6 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $168 −$19 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $857 +$29 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $306 +$16 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $131 +$18 +14%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$2 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $116 +$5 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$35 -17%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 15 $13 −$7 -56%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 2 - 3 CR Brasil? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $19 −$5 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $114 +$5 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$8 +15%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $110 +$1 +0%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $38 +$8 +20%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $53 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $15 +$6 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$9 +156%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $41 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $59 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 91¢ $15 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 91¢ $126 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 91¢ $55 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $12 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 2m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 3m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 72¢ $48 13m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 71¢ $4 13m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 14m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 66¢ $52 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $50 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $52 17m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $50 17m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $52 19m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 20m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $52 36m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $46 36m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 36m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 40¢ $23 38m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 40¢ $11 38m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 40¢ $20 38m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 41m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $47 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 77¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.09 · official $94.09 (match) · 651 history records