Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9952…5c4b politics 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$3
sports 27% −$2
world 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
other 8% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -9.2% -17.8% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -11.1% -19.5% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 57 -7.7% -16.5% 16% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage230d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $1 $0 -49%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $2 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? Feb 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 14 $74 $0 -1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 09 $149 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $311 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $79 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $77 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $1 $0 -25%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $155 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $2 $0 -9%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $76 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $77 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $77 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $73 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $71 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $74 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $75 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $72 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $73 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $73 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $73 33d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 109d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 109d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 109d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 110d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 111d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 116d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 119d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $76 119d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $76 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records