Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9951…2f44 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 75 -0.6% -10.1% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage636d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 17 $0 $0 -5%
Farcaster airdrop in 2024? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $58 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $58 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $59 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 43d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 47d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 47d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 52d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 53d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 70d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 70d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 72d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 73d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $60 78d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $60 78d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 88d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 88d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $60 96d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $60 96d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 98d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 99d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 101d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 102d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 104d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 104d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 111d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records