Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
99 0x9950…1432 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-1%) realized −$415 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%81W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$129
14 days−$119
30 days−$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$930
other 9% +$500
crypto 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -2.5%
≤30d 52 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 50% -28.1%
≤90d 164 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 48% -11.9%
all 166 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 48% -11.4%
10% -20.7% 45% -19.9%
15% -28.4% 39% -27.6%
20% -35.4% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$92 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses81 / 85
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage150d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 66¢ $59 $88 +$29 (+49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$43 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $106 −$49 -46%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $110 +$77 +70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $157 +$53 +34%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $117 +$16 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $65 +$49 +76%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $94 +$27 +29%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$7 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$79 +79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $102 +$63 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $112 −$112 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $196 −$87 -44%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $99 +$52 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $66 +$33 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 30 $67 +$35 +52%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $45 −$45 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 27 $71 −$71 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $106 +$51 +48%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 26 $100 +$76 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 May 24 $65 +$21 +32%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers May 23 $86 +$64 +74%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears May 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $67 +$41 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? May 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Draw at halftime? May 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Ulsan HD FC end in a draw? May 17 $83 +$33 +40%
Will Jeju SK FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? May 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC end in a draw? May 17 $101 +$32 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 17 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $72 +$208 +291%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Vegalta Sendai end in a draw? May 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $60 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $160 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $100 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $100 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 56¢ $57 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 35¢ $57 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $106 13h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $187 15h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 58¢ $110 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $211 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $157 22h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $157 22h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $81 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $81 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 63¢ $52 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 37¢ $52 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $65 27h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $114 37h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $114 37h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 56¢ $65 46h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $77 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 69¢ $98 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 79¢ $97 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $100 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $121 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 77¢ $94 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 58¢ $94 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 61¢ $101 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $180 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.93 · official $96.93 (match) · 460 history records