Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x994f…508d weather 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (234 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$349 (+4%) realized +$1,417 · open −$1,068
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%25W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day233.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$2,253
other 13% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (234 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +35.5% +22.6% 10% 10% -87.9%
≤30d 226 +53.8% +39.1% 11% 11% -88.9%
≤90d 226 +53.8% +39.1% 11% 11% -88.9%
all 226 +53.8% +39.1% 11% 11% -88.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.1% 11% -88.9%
10% ← realistic here +25.8% 11% -90.0%
15% +13.7% 11% -90.9%
20% +2.5% 11% -91.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -98% → late +206% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$1,417
Unrealized−$1,068
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses25 / 201
Open positions294
Markets (closed)226 / 144
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day233.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 294 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 48¢ $5 $29 +$23 (+428%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 42¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+362%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+378%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $7 $25 +$18 (+241%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $9 $25 +$16 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+323%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+323%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $23 +$17 (+318%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 37¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+307%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+323%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+312%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+191%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+274%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $5 $19 +$13 (+246%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 40¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+340%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+378%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+235%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $18 +$12 (+224%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $17 +$11 (+208%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $4 $16 +$11 (+268%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $5 $16 +$10 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $5 $15 +$11 (+224%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+246%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$43 +1204%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$19 +2610%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on May 27? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C on May 26? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$5 -136%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? Jun 15 $7 −$10 -158%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 31? Jun 15 $3 −$5 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 15 $12 −$27 -220%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 7? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on June 1? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 31? Jun 15 $3 −$5 -187%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 4? Jun 15 $3 −$5 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 28? Jun 15 $3 −$5 -175%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 25? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 15 $0 +$15 +3652%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? Jun 15 $2 −$3 -193%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 9? Jun 15 $4 −$5 -140%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on May 22? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -219%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -156%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on May 24? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 22? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 15 $1 −$5 -352%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 2 Jun 15 $1 −$5 -378%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 10? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be 6 or more major space weather events this week? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -115%
Will 320 to 349 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or below on May 26? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 27? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22? Jun 15 $5 −$10 -206%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 9? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 10? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7? Jun 15 $1 −$4 -381%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +3284%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 3? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $2 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.32 · official $1,037.80 (match) · 3500 history records