Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x994f…71ed crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%64W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$490
other 9% −$151
world 6% −$292
economics 4% +$263
politics 2% −$128
finance 2% −$168
sports 1% −$102
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +28.1% +15.9% 79% 79% +13.0%
≤30d 14 +28.1% +15.9% 79% 79% +13.0%
≤90d 16 +26.4% +14.4% 81% 81% +11.7%
all 121 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 46% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 46% -10.1%
10% -18.3% 41% -18.7%
15% -26.2% 35% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 28% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$103 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 57
Open positions10
Markets (closed)121 / 131
History coverage676d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $53 +$40 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 +$51 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $40 +$10 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $36 +$32 +90%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 28 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Apr 28 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 19 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $22 −$8 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 13? Nov 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 11? Nov 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 13 $561 −$561 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 12? Nov 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 10? Nov 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Nov 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 10 $58 +$22 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,500 on November 5? Nov 07 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 07 $13 +$27 +211%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 4? Nov 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 04 $30 +$50 +162%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 03 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Nov 03 $32 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $66 +$14 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October Oct 30 $48 −$48 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Oct 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 30? Oct 30 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 30? Oct 30 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 29? Oct 30 $98 +$22 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Oct 29 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 29? Oct 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Oct 29 $98 +$102 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $124 +$76 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 28? Oct 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $65 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 35h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 35h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $53 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 25d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 25d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 25d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 25d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 25d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 25d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 206d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 206d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 209d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? BUY No 72¢ $216 222d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.74 · official $292.74 (match) · 309 history records