Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x994e…4b63
sports · 146 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$38 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+101%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$4 +88%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 +$5 +232%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $1 +$9 +844%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 May 14 $1 +$3 +265%
Will FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 12 $2 −$1 -64%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 10 $1 +$4 +417%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 $0 +37%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs McCabe May 07 $1 $0 -23%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? May 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Mar 28 $1 $0 -27%
Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? Mar 28 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? Mar 28 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat? Mar 28 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? Mar 28 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? Mar 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on March 27? Mar 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 2? Mar 28 $1 $0 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on March 27? Mar 28 $1 $0 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 $0 +21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-03-23? Mar 28 $2 +$1 +43%
Spread: Pistons (-13.5) Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dubrovnik: Dominika Salkova vs Kaitlin Quevedo Mar 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Preli Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5) Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$40
other 10% +$2
crypto 8% $0
politics 6% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $1 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $1 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $1 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $1 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL No 8¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 15¢ $1 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 21¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 40¢ $0 27d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 10¢ $1 27d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 1¢ $1 27d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 5¢ $1 27d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY No 1¢ $1 28d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY No 1¢ $1 28d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 39¢ $4 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 39¢ $0 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.5% +38.9% 50% 50% +12.0%
≤30d 10 +92.3% +74.0% 40% 40% +32.0%
≤90d 144 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 41% -23.1%
all 144 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 41% -23.1%
10% -19.1% 35% -30.5%
15% -27.0% 28% -37.2%
20% -34.1% 24% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.39 · official $3.39 (match) · 430 history records