Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
99 0x994d…3d8d sports 326 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$805 (+1%) realized +$792 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%206W / 119L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$1,103est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days−$545
14 days−$874
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$839
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 44% -13.7%
≤30d 82 +23.9% +12.1% 63% 54% -10.6%
≤90d 194 +3.6% -6.2% 54% 46% -18.4%
all 325 +7.5% -2.8% 63% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 50% -8.4%
10% -12.1% 39% -17.1%
15% -20.6% 28% -25.1%
20% -28.4% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$132 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$792
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses206 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)325 / 326
History coverage153d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 51¢ 54¢ $255 $268 +$13 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $647 +$207 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $829 +$53 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $896 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $750 −$625 -83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $789 +$53 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $742 +$121 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $985 +$433 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $162 +$3 +2%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $216 +$6 +3%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $74 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $121 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $449 +$93 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $730 +$73 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $380 +$20 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $508 +$358 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$28 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $166 +$49 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $104 −$6 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $105 +$60 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $315 −$186 -59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $280 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $344 −$40 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $142 +$127 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $535 −$435 -81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $632 +$271 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $605 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $432 +$168 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $661 −$657 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $412 +$83 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $108 +$64 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $353 +$146 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $484 −$481 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$39 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$161 +413%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $195 +$216 +111%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $138 +$64 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $148 +$52 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $166 +$77 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $399 +$300 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $227 +$87 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $302 −$302 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $76 +$24 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $207 −$204 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $255 2m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $160 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $42 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $48 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $3 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $7 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $37 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $20 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 52¢ $44 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 52¢ $5 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 52¢ $211 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $178 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $66 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $1 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $3 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $30 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $17 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $19 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $7 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $4 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $10 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 17¢ $12 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $5 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $43 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $28 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $12 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 17¢ $7 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.50 · official $327.51 · 3000 history records