Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9949…3f3b politics 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$509 (-6%) realized −$272 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%62W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$204
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$480
other 31% +$162
sports 7% −$330
culture 3% +$70
world 2% +$21
crypto 1% +$53
finance 0% +$5
weather 0% −$15
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.4% +11.7% 75% 75% +40.1%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 56% 56% -1.9%
≤90d 19 -41.1% -46.7% 32% 32% -15.5%
all 139 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 36% -12.7%
10% -22.1% 31% -21.1%
15% -29.6% 29% -28.7%
20% -36.5% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 77
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)139 / 150
History coverage600d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 83¢ 48¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $150 $50 −$100 (-66%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-57%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$35 (-99%)
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $147 +$82 +56%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $104 +$96 +92%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$65 +127%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +82%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $165 +$70 +42%
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 08 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayora Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 Apr 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1? Mar 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
NATO article 5 in 2025? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Mar 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out in 2025? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Mar 07 $20 +$33 +166%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $335 +$164 +49%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 01 $13 +$36 +278%
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 06 $5 +$5 +108%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 01 $27 +$23 +84%
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90 or highe Sep 16 $15 +$15 +100%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 02 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Jul 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Pope be from Asia? Jul 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25m views on day 1? Jul 15 $4 −$4 -100%
New Pope announced by May 9? Jul 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Jul 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Jul 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 23 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? May 23 $20 +$18 +88%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? May 23 $19 +$9 +48%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election? May 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election? May 06 $119 −$55 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 34¢ $103 32h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 35¢ $51 32h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 83¢ $101 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 32h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $151 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $51 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $116 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $92 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 13d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 43d
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46d
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46d
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections BUY Yes 12¢ $10 46d
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el BUY Yes 2¢ $5 46d
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $21 46d
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? SELL Yes 98¢ $235 46d
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $25 46d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 37¢ $36 46d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 46d
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $12 48d
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayora BUY No 7¢ $5 59d
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el BUY Yes 8¢ $10 59d
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 BUY Yes 66¢ $33 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.47 · official $245.47 (match) · 691 history records