Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x9943…67b7
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$159 · open −$158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 16¢ $60 $1 −$60 (-99%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 11¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) B8 57¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 20¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $51 −$49 -97%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $52 +$89 +170%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $101 +$66 +65%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $151 +$201 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$159
tech 25% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +19.0%
≤30d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +19.0%
≤90d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +19.0%
all 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 50% +19.0%
10% -8.4% 50% +7.6%
15% -17.2% 50% -2.8%
20% -25.3% 50% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.31 · official $2.31 (match) · 14 history records