Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

99 0x9943…a5e9 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$244 (+37%) realized +$244 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$163per market

Trades / day5.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	75%	75%	+31.9%
≤30d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	75%	75%	+31.9%
≤90d	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	75%	75%	+31.9%
all	4	+15.2%	+4.2%	75%	75%	+31.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	75%	+31.9%
10%	-5.7%	75%	+19.3%
15%	-14.9%	75%	+7.8%
20%	-23.2%	50%	-2.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$20 · ×5.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×15.91 per $1 lost it wins $15.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$244

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$163

Trades / day5.9

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	+$63	+62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$152	+$79	+52%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$378	+$176	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	81¢	$164	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	22h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$69	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$107	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$201	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records