Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9940…7db1 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$2
other 20% +$1
politics 11% +$1
sports 3% +$6
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 0% -9.0%
all 44 +2.0% -7.7% 45% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 5% -8.6%
10% -16.5% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage486d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump say 'Epstein' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 04 $15 −$3 -19%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Mar 04 $17 −$2 -12%
UNC Asheville vs. Radford Mar 04 $9 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $12 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $0 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $11 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $36 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $13 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $15 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.31 · official $36.29 (match) · 121 history records