Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9940…44fb other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 713d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$158 (+2%) realized +$191 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$55
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$27
sports 7% +$31
world 4% +$74
crypto 1% +$1
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 18 -21.3% -28.8% 78% 0% -8.7%
all 62 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 26% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -7.4%
10% -22.0% 21% -16.3%
15% -29.5% 18% -24.4%
20% -36.4% 16% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

713d coverage
Net worth$1,461
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage713d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $1,491 $1,459 −$32 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,492 +$15 +1%
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals Jun 17 $502 +$5 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $502 +$5 +1%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 15 $506 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $502 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $502 +$5 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $191 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $302 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 3 Moldova? Jun 09 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $188 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 18 at 5 PM ET? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $350 +$82 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 14 $16 +$20 +122%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 11 $8 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 04 $3 +$4 +108%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 02 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 28 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Nov 28 $1 +$4 +245%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 4? Aug 14 $1 +$7 +614%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump positive favorability on Day 100? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? May 22 $1 +$2 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14? Apr 11 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Apr 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Dec 16 $1 $0 +15%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 16 $1 $0 +11%
Dogecoin above $0.40 on November 29? Dec 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Nov 29 $11 +$2 +15%
Unrealized gains tax passed before election day? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
Senate control after 2024 election? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
2024 October hottest on record? Nov 12 $2 $0 +4%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 12 $3 $0 -7%
Trump conviction declared a mistrial? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Oct 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,491 1h
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,492 23h
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $502 38h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $502 2d
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $506 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $502 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $502 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $490 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $490 7d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $191 8d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $302 8d
Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 3 Moldova? BUY No 99¢ $490 9d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $188 9d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 72d
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $350 148d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 164d
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 40¢ $7 164d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Spirit 45¢ $16 188d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $8 192d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) BUY 3DMAX 23¢ $5 195d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) BUY 3DMAX 48¢ $3 198d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 198d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 199d
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY Fluxo 29¢ $1 203d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,461.03 · official $1,461.03 (match) · 134 history records