Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x993f…3ee3 other 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$54,032 (+5%) realized +$51,304 · open +$2,728
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%139W / 75L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,659per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$42,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 171d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$19,182
world 32% −$12,052
politics 13% +$3,256
crypto 11% −$3,652
culture 2% +$3,171
sports 2% +$2,910
economics 1% +$3,095
tech 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 48% +5.3%
≤30d 50 +12.6% +1.8% 70% 50% -4.1%
≤90d 98 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 43% -5.7%
all 214 -0.9% -10.4% 65% 43% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 43% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -17.0%
15% -26.8% 25% -25.0%
20% -34.0% 20% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$4,150) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,099 vs −$1,967 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$42,257
Realized+$51,304
Unrealized+$2,728
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses139 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions24
Markets (closed)214 / 238
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$4,659
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $13,267 $12,900 −$367 (-3%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 58¢ 74¢ $7,008 $8,846 +$1,838 (+26%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $3,652 $3,956 +$304 (+8%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $3,245 $3,674 +$430 (+13%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $2,130 $2,535 +$405 (+19%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 66¢ $1,200 $1,320 +$120 (+10%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1,350 $1,300 −$50 (-4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $1,005 $1,148 +$142 (+14%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $935 $997 +$62 (+7%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $690 $920 +$230 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $800 $735 −$65 (-8%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 90¢ 71¢ $898 $710 −$188 (-21%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 66¢ $620 $665 +$45 (+7%)
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $461 $499 +$38 (+8%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 64¢ 45¢ $640 $450 −$190 (-30%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 23¢ 26¢ $236 $272 +$36 (+15%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 76¢ 78¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 67¢ 66¢ $261 $257 −$5 (-2%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 50¢ $277 $214 −$63 (-23%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 72¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 65¢ 68¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $7,522 +$2,478 +33%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $597 +$403 +67%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,011 +$576 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $971 +$29 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,700 +$300 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,100 +$900 +22%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $980 −$960 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,515 −$1,500 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,294 +$706 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,353 +$647 +48%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $627 −$323 -52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $935 +$1,065 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,424 +$1,576 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,467 −$1,260 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $10,962 +$380 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,519 +$11 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,155 +$1,845 +86%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,036 +$1,089 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $512 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,387 +$2,613 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $411 −$400 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $816 +$468 +57%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 12 $8,414 +$3,372 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $61 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $501 +$20 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $1,111 +$1,084 +98%
Will "Cats: The Jellicle Ball" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 20 Jun 08 $6 +$6 +100%
Will "Ragtime" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $115 +$108 +94%
Will "Paul Tazewell" win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 2026 Ton Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $19,478 +$362 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $511 +$728 +142%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $511 +$1,213 +238%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $94,939 +$3,110 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,893 −$4,757 -60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6,913 −$5,979 -86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $9,906 +$107 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 25 $710 +$1,085 +153%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 25 $4,765 +$171 +4%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $45 +$22 +49%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 22 $733 +$86 +12%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $3,122 +$809 +26%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $302 +$385 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 1h
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $802 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $977 13h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,010 13h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 13h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 17h
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $89 17h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $61 18h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 18h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $123 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $9 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $26 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $21 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $26 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $19 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $31 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $42 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $6 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $53 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $37 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $37 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $22 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $140 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,257.35 · official $42,257.35 (match) · 3500 history records