Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x993e…44b4 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,444 (-60%) realized −$3,449 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$612
7 days−$680
14 days−$680
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$473
politics 28% −$1,587
sports 15% −$788
crypto 11% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.3% -40.5% 36% 36% -47.8%
≤30d 11 -34.3% -40.5% 36% 36% -47.8%
≤90d 11 -34.3% -40.5% 36% 36% -47.8%
all 15 -51.8% -56.4% 27% 27% -76.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.4% 27% -76.9%
10% -60.6% 20% -79.2%
15% -64.4% 20% -81.2%
20% -67.9% 20% -83.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$268 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$619
Realized−$3,449
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage306d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $614 $619 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $719 −$712 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $620 +$100 +16%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Deal" 25+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o Sep 18 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Sep 09 $1,714 −$321 -19%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 01 $145 −$145 -100%
2025 August second hottest on record? Aug 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $620 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $719 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $370 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $130 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 7h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $47 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $15 2d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $14 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Trump say "Deal" 25+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o BUY Yes 49¢ $1,587 276d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 284d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL No 24¢ $276 284d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY No 84¢ $985 285d
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? BUY No 48¢ $145 296d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL No 58¢ $145 296d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY No 53¢ $132 300d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 300d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $131 300d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $143 300d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $143 300d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $177 306d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $618.99 · official $618.99 (match) · 38 history records