Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x993c…4a79 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 505d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$1
politics 10% $0
other 9% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 5% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 81% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

505d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage505d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 03 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 09 $30 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 31d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 123d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $2 182d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $35 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $26 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $4 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 273d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $37 302d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 99¢ $8 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.71 · official $43.71 (match) · 112 history records