Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x993a…b589 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$7
other 16% −$1
finance 5% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -7.4% -16.2% 33% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -24.2% 0% -19.1%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage391d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 25 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Abyss' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $7 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $34 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.10 · official $34.56 (match) · 127 history records