Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x9935…a04c sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$28 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%32W / 21L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1
sports 32% −$1
politics 10% +$14
world 9% +$5
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +56.4% +41.5% 54% 46% -6.2%
≤30d 45 +35.0% +22.2% 60% 53% -5.6%
≤90d 46 +35.3% +22.4% 61% 54% -4.1%
all 53 +27.8% +15.6% 60% 53% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 53% -5.2%
10% +4.6% 38% -14.3%
15% -5.5% 30% -22.6%
20% -14.8% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses32 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage111d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 70¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$2 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +78%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$1 -21%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $5 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $3 −$1 -49%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $11 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 −$9 -25%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 +$2 +93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$5 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +6%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $19 +$7 +37%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$8 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $19 +$9 +49%
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Mar 23 $13 −$3 -27%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 23 $1 $0 +42%
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 23 $15 +$2 +15%
San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 91¢ $43 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 87¢ $15 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 31h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $7 36h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 56¢ $4 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 3d
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $16 3d
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 30¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 53¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL MIBR Academy 33¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 63¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 87¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $4 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 93¢ $8 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 28¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 50¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 61¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $2.66 (match) · 104 history records