Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9931…d95b sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-34%) realized −$230 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$355
other 9% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -51.8% -56.4% 19% 19% -59.1%
≤30d 16 -51.8% -56.4% 19% 19% -59.1%
≤90d 16 -51.8% -56.4% 19% 19% -59.1%
all 16 -51.8% -56.4% 19% 19% -59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.4% 19% -59.1%
10% -60.6% 19% -63.0%
15% -64.4% 19% -66.6%
20% -67.9% 12% -69.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 68¢ $47 $54 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 −$1 -8%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $90 −$11 -12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $48 −$3 -7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$44 +88%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $50 −$48 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $107 −$104 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $17 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $17 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $31 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $49 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 20¢ $18 30h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $44 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 62¢ $44 30h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $62 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 81¢ $62 31h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $48 35h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $46 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 45h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $57 3d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 33¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 22¢ $21 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 28¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $4 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 33¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.84 · official $35.49 · 32 history records