Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x992b…3371 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$154 (+60%) realized +$153 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$89
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$138
other 10% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +63.9% +48.3% 56% 44% +44.9%
≤30d 14 +82.8% +65.4% 64% 57% +57.5%
≤90d 14 +82.8% +65.4% 64% 57% +57.5%
all 14 +82.8% +65.4% 64% 57% +57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.4% 57% +57.5%
10% +49.5% 57% +42.4%
15% +35.1% 57% +28.6%
20% +21.9% 50% +16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $34 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $32 +$2 +8%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $21 +$73 +340%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 −$21 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$14 +93%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$38 +371%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 +$36 +348%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $13 +$27 +206%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $35 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $35 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $32 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $94 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $22 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $15 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croa BUY 20¢ $10 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $10 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $10 6d
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 30¢ $10 6d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 29¢ $10 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $46 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 22¢ $10 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $13 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.51 · official $35.51 (match) · 28 history records