Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x992b…5053 sports 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,465 (+1%) realized +$1,537 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%163W / 173L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1,390est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$493
7 days−$2,308
14 days−$4,094
30 days−$7,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$107
other 10% −$1,209
crypto 1% +$1,025
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -56.6% -60.7% 27% 18% -71.5%
≤30d 67 -27.5% -34.4% 39% 33% -35.7%
≤90d 327 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 45% -11.0%
all 336 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 45% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 45% -9.5%
10% -23.0% 45% -18.2%
15% -30.4% 44% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 42% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$278 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2,738
Realized+$1,537
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses163 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,390
Open positions13
Markets (closed)336 / 349
History coverage96d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $550 $512 −$38 (-7%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $304 $309 +$6 (+2%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs FaZe Vegas 55¢ 54¢ $305 $300 −$6 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $230 $295 +$65 (+28%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 64¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $200 $203 +$2 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 41¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $121 $114 −$7 (-6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 24¢ $250 $87 −$162 (-65%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $530 +$470 +89%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $27 +$23 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 21 $361 −$361 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 21 $412 −$412 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $605 −$605 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $556 −$556 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $71 +$69 +96%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $544 +$567 +104%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $451 −$451 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $561 −$561 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $588 −$588 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $636 −$636 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $596 −$596 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $21 +$17 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $304 +$241 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $543 +$467 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $509 −$8 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $908 +$344 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $640 +$560 +88%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $51 +$157 +307%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $608 −$608 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $608 +$464 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $568 +$509 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $263 −$263 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $264 −$264 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 03 $226 −$226 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $395 −$395 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $395 −$395 -100%
Will Aaron Ramsdale be included in England's official 2026 World Cup s Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $200 +$7 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $304 +$296 +97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $701 +$467 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 31 $203 −$203 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $254 −$254 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $632 −$632 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $509 −$509 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $329 +$251 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $632 +$421 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 14m
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 55¢ $309 37m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $170 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $139 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $202 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $265 28h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $242 28h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 28h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 29h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 35h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $9 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $605 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $153 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $315 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $71 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $24 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $40 8d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 53¢ $259 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 53¢ $113 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 33¢ $108 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $214 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,737.70 · official $2,737.70 (match) · 901 history records