Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x992a…b2ad crypto 421 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%193W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days+$3
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 40% -15.3%
≤30d 254 -12.0% -20.3% 42% 41% -20.4%
≤90d 420 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 45% -13.3%
all 420 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -13.3%
10% -21.7% 45% -21.6%
15% -29.2% 43% -29.2%
20% -36.2% 43% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 227
Open positions1
Markets (closed)420 / 421
History coverage50d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 667 history records