Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9923…20ab other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+15%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$19
other 46% −$9
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +70.8% +54.5% 50% 50% +24.3%
≤30d 8 +70.8% +54.5% 50% 50% +24.3%
≤90d 8 +70.8% +54.5% 50% 50% +24.3%
all 8 +70.8% +54.5% 50% 50% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.5% 50% +24.3%
10% ← realistic here +39.7% 50% +12.4%
15% +26.2% 50% +1.6%
20% +13.9% 50% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)8 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +231%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +153%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +223%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$15 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 40m
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 45m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 50m
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 52m
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 52m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 53m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $19 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.43 · official $32.43 (match) · 35 history records