Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x991c…378a world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$82 (+1%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 64L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days+$41
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$69
other 18% +$7
politics 16% −$2
sports 15% +$4
finance 2% +$8
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.7% -7.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 32 +1.2% -8.4% 38% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 84 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 4% -8.9%
all 97 +0.7% -8.9% 34% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 64
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage334d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $120 +$9 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $154 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $451 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $409 −$6 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $212 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $229 −$5 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $227 −$4 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $282 +$46 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $206 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $150 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $387 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $316 −$2 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $207 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $279 +$8 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $198 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $238 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $273 +$8 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $310 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $174 −$3 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $359 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $204 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $177 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $178 +$17 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $8 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $161 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $145 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $183 +$2 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $340 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $162 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $558 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $179 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $194 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $126 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $120 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $43 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $55 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $71 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $84 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $112 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $115 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $226 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $202 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records