Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x991b…8cf3 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3
other 19% +$23
politics 14% +$1
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 41 +1.2% -8.5% 37% 2% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -7.6%
10% -17.2% 2% -16.4%
15% -25.2% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×9.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.89 per $1 lost it wins $11.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage306d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $64 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $67 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $120 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $56 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 12 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 21 $41 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $23 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $41 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $27 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $37 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $64 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $54 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $9 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $63 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $39 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $25 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $58 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $57 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $62 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $19 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $44 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $63 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.05 · official $47.77 (match) · 178 history records