Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9914…6adb other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
other 25% +$1
politics 21% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% −$3
weather 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 14 +143.1% +120.0% 36% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 14 +143.1% +120.0% 36% 7% -10.1%
all 40 +52.0% +37.6% 45% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 5% -10.0%
10% +24.4% 5% -18.6%
15% +12.4% 5% -26.5%
20% +1.4% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage448d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $53 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $51 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $11 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 May 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 11 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 10 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? Apr 08 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? Apr 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 04 $1 +$4 +283%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 03 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $46 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $29 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $16 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $46 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $44 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $10 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $35 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $50 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $8 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $2 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $26 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 17¢ $10 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 15¢ $9 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.00 · official $42.00 (match) · 114 history records