Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x9913…6798 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$4
other 22% +$5
politics 8% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 25% 8% -8.5%
≤30d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 5% -9.3%
all 56 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 4% -17.7%
15% -24.8% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage473d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +43%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $8 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 20 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $0 $0 -22%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 62°F or higher on April 13? Apr 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $52 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $18 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $26 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $15 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.67 · official $53.67 (match) · 162 history records