Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9912…cf20 crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate64%222W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$60
14 days+$35
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$82
sports 1% +$35
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +13.5% +2.6% 100% 6% -6.6%
≤30d 304 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 36% -10.0%
≤90d 347 -6.2% -15.1% 64% 35% -10.5%
all 347 -6.2% -15.1% 64% 35% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 35% -10.5%
10% -23.2% 25% -19.1%
15% -30.6% 19% -26.9%
20% -37.4% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses222 / 125
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)347 / 348
History coverage38d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $137 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$10 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$18 +595%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 36m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $71 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $59 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $61 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.86 · official $2.59 (match) · 744 history records