Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x9912…5d4a sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (203 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,124 (-1%) realized −$605 · open −$519
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,876per market
Trades / day203.0pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$15,808
crypto 15% −$3,092
sports 8% +$2,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (203 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 56% +15.6%
≤30d 18 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 56% +15.6%
≤90d 18 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 56% +15.6%
all 18 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 56% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover203.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 56% +15.6%
10% -3.0% 44% +4.5%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -5.6%
20% -20.9% 33% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,280) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,993 vs −$561 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42,327
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$519
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions17
Markets (closed)18 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,876
Trades / day203.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $10,000 $12,071 +$2,071 (+21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5,000 $4,960 −$40 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5,000 $4,955 −$45 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5,000 $4,900 −$100 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5,000 $4,826 −$174 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2,500 $2,483 −$17 (-1%)
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $1,500 $2,074 +$574 (+38%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,000 $974 −$26 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 42¢ $1,000 $933 −$67 (-7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 74¢ $500 $591 +$91 (+18%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 55¢ $530 $561 +$31 (+6%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 51¢ 42¢ $500 $412 −$88 (-18%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 53¢ $2,716 $25 −$2,690 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $755 −$300 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,330 +$1,112 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,280 +$204 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,085 −$1,025 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,251 +$171 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $763 −$320 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $946 +$403 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,323 −$974 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $922 −$11 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $622 −$587 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,720 +$926 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $690 +$1,605 +233%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 +$251 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $145 +$152 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42,240 +$14,649 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,011 +$458 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $992 −$966 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $541 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $487 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $642 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $736 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $292 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $245 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $790 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $44 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $769 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,873 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,326.56 · official $45,224.55 · 207 history records