Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9910…f830 crypto 1405 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,394 (+7%) realized +$3,394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%1377W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$315
sports 1% +$24
other 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 -31.4% -37.9% 62% 3% -56.5%
≤30d 1513 -8.7% -17.4% 87% 2% -28.0%
≤90d 1572 -8.0% -16.7% 88% 2% -26.8%
all 1572 -8.0% -16.7% 88% 2% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 2% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -33.8%
15% -32.0% 0% -40.2%
20% -38.6% 0% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$67 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1377 / 195
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1572 / 1405
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1572 Trades
no open positions (197 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4AM ET Jun 28 $55 −$16 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3AM ET Jun 28 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Jun 28 $11 −$13 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 28 $109 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records