Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990f…d200 weather 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,917 (-12%) realized −$1,955 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%29W / 7L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,058
14 days−$2,058
30 days−$2,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$92
other 29% −$2,092
sports 5% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.6% -49.9% 50% 25% -51.4%
≤30d 4 -44.6% -49.9% 50% 25% -51.4%
≤90d 36 -10.9% -19.4% 81% 22% -20.6%
all 36 -10.9% -19.4% 81% 22% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 22% -20.6%
10% -27.1% 11% -28.2%
15% -34.1% 3% -35.1%
20% -40.6% 3% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$380 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$1,955
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses29 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage85d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,112 −$2,106 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,208 +$125 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? Apr 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 5? Apr 06 $98 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 4? Apr 06 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3? Apr 04 $6 $0 +4%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 3? Apr 04 $238 +$12 +5%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2? Apr 02 $19 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? Apr 02 $965 +$28 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 1? Apr 02 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1? Apr 02 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 1? Apr 01 $336 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 30? Mar 31 $538 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 29? Mar 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 29? Mar 30 $134 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 29? Mar 30 $256 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 30 $425 +$75 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $155 +$25 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27? Mar 28 $894 +$33 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27? Mar 28 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 26? Mar 27 $358 −$358 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26? Mar 27 $478 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26? Mar 26 $2,231 +$41 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 26? Mar 26 $372 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 26? Mar 26 $1,919 +$166 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25? Mar 26 $529 +$93 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 25? Mar 25 $100 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 25? Mar 25 $399 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 6¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,112 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,208 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Hai BUY 18¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 86¢ $43 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 3d
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? BUY No 95¢ $38 63d
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 74d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 74d
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3? BUY No 96¢ $6 75d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 75d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 5? BUY No 96¢ $98 75d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 92¢ $92 75d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on April 4? BUY No 93¢ $103 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 3? BUY No 95¢ $108 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 98¢ $638 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 98¢ $24 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 96¢ $54 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 96¢ $6 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2? BUY No 80¢ $5 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 2? BUY No 80¢ $15 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on April 3? BUY No 95¢ $130 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 95¢ $5 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 95¢ $124 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 95¢ $19 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 2? BUY No 95¢ $95 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.66 · official $241.81 · 168 history records